Towards the NATO summit
This week the 2016 NATO summit will take place in Warsaw.
In preparation for the summit, NATO Secretary General Stoltenberg called with Polish President Duda:
Polish Ministry of Foreign Affairs -- President Andrzej Duda discusses NATO summit with Stoltenberg
Chaired by Mr Stoltenberg, the NATO summit will be held in Warsaw on 8-9 July.
It will bring together the heads of state and government of 28 member countries, including US President Barack Obama. The main gathering will be held at the PGE National Stadium in Warsaw.
The summit will discuss responses to the threats coming from the east and the south, including decisions on increasing the military presence in the Alliance’s east, and NATO’s further expansion.
In preparation for the summit, John Kerry visited the NATO HQ in Brussels to meet with Stoltenberg last week:
Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg held talks with US Secretary of State John Kerry at NATO headquarters on Monday (27 June 2016) on next week’s Warsaw Summit, and the implications of the UK’s vote on membership in the European Union.
The summit is interesting on many levels. There is the Warsaw-Washington relationship. Halfway March, Politico noted some tensions between the two:
Politico -- Polish-American romance sours
The escalating conflict between Poland’s right-wing government and the country’s top constitutional court is starting to taint its crucial security relationship with the United States.
Poland has long viewed itself as a key U.S. ally in Europe, with a special relationship that goes back decades. While many Poles felt the U.K. and France betrayed them during World War II, the U.S. was seen as a defender of Poland during communism. And in turn, in the post-Cold War era, America has nurtured Poland as a trusted European partner.
Poland’s current constitutional standoff is upending the relationship, with potentially far-reaching consequences for Poland’s region and the Western alliance. These days, Washington sees Poland as less of an asset and more of a problem, alongside other Central European countries seen as democracy backsliders.
The troubles in Warsaw are a distraction ahead of the coming NATO summit in July, during which the Poles will push hard for the permanent stationing of alliance troops in Poland to deter a newly aggressive Russia.
Two weeks later Politico again commented on the USA-Poland relationship, when Polish President Duda failed to secure a tête-a-tête with Obama during the nuclear summit in Washington:
Politico -- Poland’s president can’t escape judicial questions on US trip
That Duda isn’t formally meeting with President Barack Obama or top congressional officials during the Nuclear Security Summit, which is taking place in Washington this week, has caused a stir in Polish media, with some observers arguing that Washington is freezing Duda out because of worries about the independence of Poland’s Constitutional Tribunal and media freedom under the right-wing Law and Justice party.
That said, Obama has only one formal bilateral meeting with a head of state scheduled this week: with Chinese President Xi Jinping. Turkey’s president, Recep Tayyip Erdoğan, was rebuffed in his request for a formal meeting amid concerns about his government’s human rights record. Erdoğan is now scheduled to meet with Vice President Joe Biden and likely have an “informal” chat with Obama.
And the very same day Politico published this piece as well, regarding the embarrassment when the Polish Minister of Foreign Affairs Waszczykowski declared his country to be free from "negro mentality":
Politico -- Polish foreign minister: No more ‘negro mentality’ toward US
Poland’s new government has shed the country’s “negro mentality” when it comes to relations with the United States, Foreign Minister Witold Waszczykowski said on Polish public television.
Waszczykowski’s use of murzyńskości, a phrase insulting in both Polish and English, was supposed to be his way of showing that Poland’s right-wing Law and Justice party (PiS) government has broken with the supposed servile attitude towards Washington demonstrated by the previous government.
As well as noting that Waszczykowski also does not like vegetarians, cyclists, and racial mixing (what?):
In a January interview with German tabloid Bild, he denounced vegetarians, cyclists, racial mixing and renewable energy as hallmarks of a left-wing ideology that “has little in common with traditional Polish values.”
You could say Politico has it in for Poland.
And
It was Sikorski — foreign minister from 2007-2014 — who first used the term “negro mentality” when assessing relations with the U.S. during a 2014 private dinner with former Finance Minister Jacek Rostowki. The conversation was illegally recorded and splashed all over Polish media. That recording was one of the factors that disenchanted voters and led Civic Platform to its electoral defeat last October.
Putin, who visited Finland on Friday, spoke to Finnish President Niinistö:
Yle -- Putin agrees to Finnish proposal on aircraft transponders
In his remarks following their talks, President Niinistö spoke about small steps that would help improve trust and referred to both Ukraine and the Baltic Sea region. Trust, he said, would reduce mutual fears in the Baltic Sea region.
According to President Niinistö, one step would be for aircraft to use their transponders over the Baltic Sea so that flights can be monitored.
"We agree to the proposal of the Finnish president. I will give instructions that this matter is to be put on the agenda of a meeting between NATO and Russia," Putin told the media. According to the Russian president, the meeting in question is supposed to take place in Brussels following NATO's Warsaw gathering.
Yle's Marja Manninen asked President Putin what Russian aims to achieve by increasing its military presence in the Baltic Sea since the takeover of the Crimea.
Putin responded that Russia is never provocative. He argued that it was western provocation that started the situations in the Crimea and Ukraine. He claimed that the same quarters are trying to raise tensions in the Baltic.
"NATO's military infrastructure is approaching Russia's borders in the Baltic," Putin continued.
According to Putin, NATO's missile defense and missile systems are directed against Russia. He further claimed that only Russia troop movements are considered threatening, but NATO maneuvers are not.
"Our troops have been withdrawn far from the Finnish-Russian border. At the same time troops are being increased beyond our borders in the Baltic countries. What can we do?”, he asked.
If the meeting between NATO and Russia takes place, it will be only the second time since the NATO-Russian Council suspended cooperation with Russia in April 2014. The previous meeting, on April 20, 2016, wasn't a great success:
The Guardian -- Nato-Russia Council talks fail to iron out differences
Nato and Russian officials held the first meeting for nearly two years of a joint council on Wednesday but failed to make any apparent progress in resolving increasingly dangerous military tensions.
The NATO-Russia Council meeting is supposed to take place July 13:
Reuters -- NATO-Russia Council to discuss air safety on July 13
The NATO-Russia Council (NRC) will meet on July 13 to discuss air safety measures over the Baltic Sea and other issues, RIA news agency cited a statement by the Russian Defence Ministry as saying on Saturday.
The NATO-Russia Council was established by the Rome Declaration in 2002, which built on the NATO-Russia Founding Act of 1997.
French Foreign Minister Jean-Marc Ayrault's remarks last Wednesday have been conciliatory:
Reuters -- Russia agrees to talks with NATO after Warsaw summit: France
Ayrault said France wanted the summit to show solidarity among allies but also transparency towards Russia through dialogue.
"We don't want the Warsaw summit to be a confrontational summit," he said.
Last month, on June 2, Merkel and Stoltenberg spoke about the need to prevent conflict, calling for a meeting of the NATO-Russia Council:
Deutsche Welle -- NATO will keinen Konflikt mit Russland
"Wir verletzen diese Grundakte [NATO-Russland-Grundakte] nicht, wir sind innerhalb dieser NATO-Russland-Grundakte, die wir auch immer wieder mit Leben erfüllen sollten." In der Nato-Russland-Grundakte hatte die westliche Allianz Moskau das Versprechen gegeben, in Osteuropa keine zusätzlichen, substantiellen und permanenten Kampftruppen zu stationieren.
Deutschland will mit Russland unbedingt im Gespräch bleiben und die politischen und diplomatischen Kanäle offen halten. Andererseits geht es aber auch darum, die eigenen Bündnispflichten zu erfüllen. Der NATO-Gipfel in Warschau werde "wichtige Weichenstellungen" vornehmen, sagt Merkel. Vor diesem Hintergrund sei es "eigentlich wünschenswert, wenn es nochmal einen NATO-Russland-Rat vor dem Gipfel in Warschau geben könnte", drängt Merkel.
Stoltenberg hat für die Gratwanderung Deutschlands durchaus Verständnis. Auch er betont, dass das transatlantische Verteidigungsbündnis keineswegs einen Konflikt mit Russland wolle. "Was die NATO tut, ist von defensiver Natur und angemessen und es bedeutet, dass wir einen Beitrag für unsere gemeinsame Verteidigung leisten." Damit wolle man nicht etwa eine Auseinandersetzung provozieren, sondern verhindern. "Wir wollen keinen Konflikt mit Russland, wir versuchen ganz im Gegenteil eine konstruktivere Beziehung zu Russland zu erreichen."
Zeit Online -- Merkel will Nato-Russland-Rat vor Nato-Gipfel im Juli
Angesichts der Spannungen mit Moskau hat sich Bundeskanzlerin Angela Merkel (CDU) für einen neuen Nato-Russland-Rat noch vor dem Nato-Gipfel im Juli ausgesprochen. "Es wäre wünschenswert, wenn es nochmal einen Nato-Russland-Rat vor dem Gipfel gäbe", sagte Merkel
Halfway June, German Foreign Minister Frank-Walter Steinmeier criticized the NATO exercises in the Baltics:
Spiegel Online -- Steinmeier kritisiert Nato-Manöver: "Säbelrasseln und Kriegsgeheul"
Mehr Dialog und Kooperation mit Russland - das fordert Bundesaußenminister Frank-Walter Steinmeier (SPD) in der "Bild am Sonntag" (BamS). Die Nato-Manöver in Osteuropa hat er scharf kritisiert: "Was wir jetzt nicht tun sollten, ist durch lautes Säbelrasseln und Kriegsgeheul die Lage weiter anzuheizen", sagte er dem Blatt laut einer Vorabmeldung.
Am vergangenen Dienstag hatte im Baltikum ein internationales Manöver mit rund 10.000 Soldaten aus 13 Staaten begonnen - knapp einen Monat vor dem Nato-Gipfel in Warschau. Die Militärübung namens "Saber Strike" soll bis 21. Juni dauern und auf verschiedenen Truppenübungsplätzen in Estland, Lettland und Litauen stattfinden.
Retired Italian General Tricarico also commented negatively on the NATO excursions:
Euronews -- General Leonardo Tricarico: NATO “not prepared for real dangers”
General Leonardo Tricarico: “You listen to Stoltenberg, and you hear Obama. Or vice versa. I have the impression that Stoltenberg is a mouthpiece for US influence on NATO’s behaviour in general.
“Instead of taking their foot off the gas towards a vision modeled on the US perspective, there is a clear accelleration in this direction, which allows me to observe that the US’s influence over NATO has increased to a level which is unacceptable.”
[...]
General Leonardo Tricarico: “The Baltic countries have this reaction, which is largely understandable, and that’s why they’re speaking to the gut instincts of these countries. They’re former members [of the Soviet Union] or countries which always saw Russia as a danger, and in this case they’re the useful idiots – not in the offensive meaning – they’re just the instruments used by the United States, or at least the US are encouraging their fears, in order to justify this danger represented by the Russian bear. But that’s not the reality of the situation.
Italian Prime Minister Renzi on June 17 at the St Petersburg International Economic Forum:
The Financial Times -- Renzi lifts spirits at Russia’s ‘Davos’
“We need Europe and Russia to become wonderful neighbours again,” Matteo Renzi, the Italian prime minister told a hall packed with business executives and government officials in St Petersburg on Friday.
[...]
European business leaders were also pressing for political détente. Stefan Schaible, deputy chief executive of consultancy Roland Berger, called for a modern-day Ostpolitik. “The business community is ready; politics has to go by a ‘change through rapprochement’ in high-speed mode. I hope my country will take a central role.”
[...]
Mr Putin certainly appeared assuaged by the show of understanding from Renzi and Jean-Claude Juncker, European Commission president who was also present. The Russian president dropped his customary bitterness when discussing European sanctions on Russia, and instead blamed the US for forcing them on to the EU. “Matteo, why? Why are you enduring this?” he joked.
On June 8 the French Senate adopted, with 301 votes in favor and 16 against, a resolution calling for the government to re-evaluate the sanctions against Russia, and in particular to lift the sanctions on travel for Russian members of parliament:
Dans la lignée de ce rapport, le texte de la résolution adoptée par le Sénat, tout en réaffirmant son attachement à la souveraineté de l’Ukraine, en condamnant l’annexion de la Crimée et en appelant à la mise en œuvre des accords de Minsk, invite à travailler à la levée des sanctions contre les parlementaires russes, appelle à la réévaluation des sanctions diplomatiques en vue d’une reprise des sommets bilatéraux et souhaite un "allègement progressif et partiel" des sanctions économiques si des "progrès significatifs" sont faits dans la mise en œuvre des accords de Minsk.
s In May 2016, the US Senate Spain
The Times -- Spain ‘betraying Nato allies’ by hosting Russian navy
Spain has been accused of betraying its Nato and EU allies by allowing dozens of Russian destroyers and submarines to refuel in its territories in north Africa — less than 20 miles from the Royal Navy base at Gibraltar.
Spain has hosted at least 57 Russian warships, submarines and amphibious vessels at its north African enclave since 2011, prompting concerns on both sides of the Atlantic that Madrid is providing succour to President Putin.
The economic sanctions were not lifted during the June 29 EU Council meeting:
Council of the EU -- Russia: EU prolongs economic sanctions by six months
On 1 July 2016, the Council prolonged the economic sanctions targeting specific sectors of the Russian economy until 31 January 2017.
The Heritage Foundation doesn't think the NATO-Russia Founding Act should prevent permanent basis and recommends that the USA should "work with allies" to "alleviate concerns":
Work with reluctant allies in NATO. Some NATO members, such as Germany, incorrectly interpret the 1997 NATO–Russia Founding Act as an excuse not to support new NATO bases in Central and Eastern Europe. The U.S. should work with these allies to alleviate any concerns they might have about the legality of permanent bases.
The RAND Corporation has been churning out a steady stream of publications that basically take a Russian invasion of the Baltics for granted.
This piece (from the beginning of February judging by this Facebook post) recommends training the Baltic people in guerilla tactics:
RAND Corporation -- Unconventional Options for the Defense of the Baltic States
What else could be done to deter aggression, and, in case of invasion, to buy the Baltic states time until sufficient NATO reinforcements can enter the fight? Part of the solution might come from considering unconventional options, such as those that were part of the Swiss national defense strategy during the Cold War: training and equipping independently operating local defense units (supported by regular forces in accordance with a national strategy), preparing transportation infrastructure for demolition, and instructing members of the military, as well as the general public, in how to effectively participate in decentralized, ubiquitous, and aggressive resistance activities, along with a coordinated information operations (IO) campaign.
This widely quoted RAND piece (Foreign Policy, The Telegraph, The Daily Express, The National Interest, Bild, NRC) estimates that a Russian invasion force could easily reach Tallinn in between 36 and 60 hours:
RAND Corporation -- Reinforcing Deterrence on NATO's Eastern Flank
Across multiple games using a wide range of expert participants playing both sides, the longest it has taken Russian forces to reach the outskirts of Tallinn and Riga is 60 hours.
Correspondingly, RAND has been campaigning for permanently stationing NATO troops in the Baltics since at least March 2015:
RAND Corporation -- Stop Putin's Next Invasion Before It Starts (Mar 2015)
Geography makes the Baltic republics vulnerable to Russian aggression. Should Russia choose to attack, no one seriously thinks that their defense forces and the other NATO troops currently in or close enough to Eastern Europe to respond could stop them.
At around the same time the Economist was also seen clamoring for reinforced military presence in the Baltics:
The Economist -- Putin’s war on the West (Feb 12, 2015)
Just as urgently, those former Soviet countries that have joined Western institutions must be buttressed and reassured. If the case for sending arms to the Donbas is doubtful, that for basing NATO troops in the Baltics is overwhelming, however loudly Mr Putin squeals. Western leaders must make it clear, to him and their own people, that they will defend their allies, and the alliance—even if the struggle is covert and murky.
All the while it's entirely unclear what would be gained by invading the Baltics. Even The National Interest allows for doubt in this piece by Cato Institute's Doug Bandow (granted, published in the section "Skeptics"):
The National Interest -- Why on Earth Would Russia Attack the Baltics? (Feb 7, 2016)
So what would Russia gain from attacking the Baltics? A recalcitrant, majority non-ethnic Russian population. A possible temporary nationalist surge at home. A likely short-lived victory over the West.
The costs would be far greater. Grabbing the Baltics likely would spur population exodus and trigger economic collapse. Launching a war without the convincing pretext present in the cases of Georgia and Ukraine might leave the Russian public angry over the retaliation certain to come. Worse, Moscow certainly would rupture economic and political relations with the United States and Europe and probably start a losing conventional war with NATO. Even more frightening would be the prospect of a nuclear conflict, whether intentional or inadvertent.
Still, the recently published book 2017 War With Russia from former Deputy Supreme Allied Commander Richard Shirreff, predicts a Russian invasion within a year:
The Independent -- Former Nato commander’s new book predicts invasion of Baltic
General Sir Richard Shirreff, who served as Nato’s Deputy Supreme Allied Commander in Europe between 2011 and 2014, said that an attack on Estonia, Lithuania or Latvia – all Nato members – was a serious possibility and that the West should act now to avert “potential catastrophe”.
[...]
General Shirreff said that Mr Putin could be persuaded into an intervention in the Baltic by a “perception” of weakness in Nato, and predicted that, as in Crimea, the Russian president would present his actions as an act of defence to protect the large Russian-speaking minorities in those countries.
General Shirreff's reasoning is broken because the more plausible reason for the invasion of Crimea isn't the protection of Russian-speaking minorities, but to secure access to the crucial port of Sebastopol. It is entirely unclear what the Russians would gain from conquering Tallinn, Riga or Vilnius -- all nice cities, don't get me wrong, but really not worth antagonizing over the EU, the NATO, and the USA. Kaliningrad already provides access to the Baltic Sea and East Sea.
colleague of Breedlove,
NATO -- Readiness Action Plan, approved at the 2014 NATO summit in Wales.
US News -- 10 Goals for the NATO Summit
Almost every NATO summit since the end of the Cold War has been described as an inflection point. And perhaps they all have been in their own way. The NATO summit in Warsaw next week is no different. NATO faces unprecedented challenges from both east and south. Russia’s invasion of Ukraine has caused the alliance to refocus on its original raison d’etre of territorial defense. But unconventional threats from nonstate actors and humanitarian crises fueled by ongoing conflict in the Middle East and North Africa are pushing NATO to become active in new areas. At the same time older challenges continue to linger and raise questions about the alliance’s future role. In order to provide NATO with a sense of strategic direction, the Warsaw summit must achieve 10 outcomes.